And welcome back to Café con Leche… today is episode #14. Monday, February 16, 2026. And once again, I'm your host Richard, covering today's podcast in English.

So today, we’re not talking about trade. We’re talking about power.

For decades, we believed globalization diluted rivalries. That trade created stability. That interdependence was synonymous with peace.

But 2026 shows us a different reality.

First, Europe closes its market to Chinese companies.
Second, Cuba runs out of fuel and China steps into the Caribbean.
Third, Canada debates whether it is becoming a “vassal state.”
Fourth, Iran declares its nuclear program untouchable.
And fifth, in the skies of Europe, a silent war is unfolding over control of wind turbines.

This is not the end of trade. It is the beginning of strategic competition within trade.

Today, we analyze who writes the rules… and who lives under them.

THEME 1: The EU’s “Secret Weapon” Against China

The Move in Brussels

The European Union is preparing for a profound shift in its economic strategy. In March 2026, the European Commission will introduce new security measures designed to restrict Chinese companies’ access to public funding and government contracts.

At the core of these measures is a revision of budgetary rules that would allow the EU to exclude companies from “non-reciprocal” countries — in other words, states that do not offer reciprocity in market access.

For decades, the EU defended open markets as a structural principle. Today, we are witnessing a clear strategic shift and a genuine systemic recalibration.

The Geopolitical Logic Behind the Change

Brussels no longer defines China merely as a trading partner, but as a systemic rival. The concern is not only commercial, but structural: Chinese state-owned enterprises compete in Europe with massive public backing, while European firms face barriers in China.

From a geoeconomic perspective, the EU seeks to protect the “European taxpayer euro.” Access to public contracts becomes a form of political conditionality and a geoeconomic instrument.

Europe is attempting to transform its market size into structural power, engaging in a strategic leverage conversion. It is a clear exercise in economic statecraft.

The Implications

By shutting the door to heavily subsidized firms, the EU aims to prevent future structural dependency and to strengthen its own industrial champions through industrial policy.

However, this strategy could provoke retaliation and increase coercive interdependence. The question is not whether there will be competition, but what kind of competition it will be.

Europe wants to preserve free trade — but under new rules.

THEME 2: Cuba, Fuel, and the Return of Caribbean Geopolitics

A Crisis That Paralyzes

Cuba is facing a critical jet fuel shortage. The crisis reached a breaking point when airlines such as Air Canada and WestJet suspended flights due to the lack of fuel for the return journey.

Thousands of tourists were stranded. Tourism revenues — essential to the Cuban economy — evaporated almost immediately. The situation exposed a deep structural vulnerability.

At the same time, the United States has tightened sanctions and warned of measures against vessels transporting oil to the island, intensifying economic pressure and economic coercion.

China’s Entry

In this context, China declared itself “ready to help” its strategic partner. But this assistance is not neutral. Energy supply becomes strategic leverage.

By providing fuel when others cannot, Beijing expands its presence in the Caribbean — in Washington’s “backyard.”

Here we observe a clear power asymmetry and a dynamic of coercive interdependence. Cuba attempts to preserve its sovereignty, but its energy dependency limits its real room for maneuver.

What Is at Stake

If Chinese assistance translates into credit and long-term commitments, a new structural dependency could emerge.

The crisis demonstrates how energy becomes a tool of economic statecraft without the need for direct military confrontation.

THEME 3: Canada and the “Vassal State” Accusation

The Domestic Debate

An intense debate has erupted in Canada over the government’s economic direction. Critic Joel Kotkin has argued that the country may be turning into a “vassal state” of China.

The controversy centers on a potential shift of approximately $200 billion in trade and investment toward China, at the expense of Canada’s traditional alignment with the United States.

The Geopolitical Dimension

From a geopolitical perspective, a vassal state is one that is subordinate to a more powerful neighbour. If Canada deepens its commercial and financial dependency on China, asymmetry could increase — eventually becoming a power asymmetry.

Kotkin warns that Canada risks becoming a “resource farm”: exporting raw materials while importing advanced technological goods. That pattern reflects a potential structural dependency.

Unlike the EU, Canada possesses less structural power and has a more limited capacity to exercise global regulatory influence.

The Strategic Consequences

If trade begins to shape diplomatic decisions, a gradual erosion of sovereignty could occur.

Canada’s challenge is to prevent interdependence from evolving into coercive interdependence, while maintaining strategic room for maneuver in an increasingly polarized environment.

THEME 4: Iran’s Nuclear Red Line

A Point of No Return

Tensions in the Middle East have reached critical levels. Iranian officials have declared that even in the event of direct war, they will not renounce their nuclear program.

For Tehran, nuclear infrastructure functions as a strategic insurance policy. In an environment where regime change is perceived as a constant threat, abandoning the program would amount to existential vulnerability.

The Strategic Logic

Western sanctions, designed as a tool of economic coercion, have produced clear strategic entrenchment.

Iran has developed a resistance economy and has integrated the nuclear program into an embedded deterrence logic.

The “right to enrich” is framed as a symbol of sovereignty and a mechanism of deterrence.

A Dangerous Balance

Constant pressure reinforces internal regime cohesion. Here we see the limits of economic statecraft when the adversary perceives an existential threat.

The dynamic creates a cycle of coercive interdependence that is difficult to break without regional escalation.

THEME 5: The EU-China Great Wind Turbine War

The New Battlefield

The confrontation is no longer military — it is industrial. European companies such as Vestas and Siemens compete with Chinese giants like Goldwind in what some describe as “economic warfare.”

China has built the world’s most efficient green supply chain through subsidies and strategic planning.

Energy Security and Industrial Power

Europe fears that relying on Chinese turbines, software, and components could create systemic vulnerability.

The electrical grid now incorporates data systems and digital control mechanisms. If that infrastructure depends on external actors, a form of coercive interdependence may emerge.

The EU is using regulation as a geoeconomic instrument within the framework of industrial policy and strategic autonomy.

The Competition of the 21st Century

This is not only about saving the planet, but about avoiding a new structural dependency.

The green transition is also a competition for structural power. Europe wants to lead decarbonization without becoming China’s strategic customer.

We are witnessing a dispute over control of the productive machinery of the 21st century.

BONUS EPISODE

Why Europe Is Creating an Alternative to Visa and Mastercard

The Invisible Power of Payments

Every time you pay with a card, you’re not just making a transaction. You’re participating in a global network of financial power.

For decades, two American companies — Visa and Mastercard — have dominated the international payments system. But now, Europe wants to change that.

Why?

Because control over payments is not just technical. It is geopolitical.

The Underlying Problem

Visa and Mastercard process the majority of electronic transactions in Europe. Even though European banks issue the cards, the critical processing infrastructure depends on U.S. networks.

That means that, ultimately, a key part of the European financial system falls under U.S. jurisdiction.

In a context of sanctions, transatlantic tensions, and growing global rivalry, this represents a strategic vulnerability.

Europe has realized something fundamental:

Control over the payment system is a form of structural power.

The Geopolitical Dimension

When the United States imposes financial sanctions, it can block banks, companies, and even entire countries from the global payment system.

That is economic statecraft in action.

Europe does not want to break with the United States. But it does want to reduce its dependency.

That is why the European Payments Initiative (EPI) emerged — an attempt to create a European network capable of processing payments within the continent without relying on Visa or Mastercard.

The goal is to strengthen strategic autonomy and avoid structural dependency in a critical infrastructure sector.

Because if you do not control your payment systems, you do not control your financial sovereignty.

What Is Really at Stake

This is not just corporate competition.

It is a matter of coercive interdependence.

If Europe depends on networks under foreign control, in a crisis it could face indirect pressure.

Creating an alternative does not mean isolating itself. It means diversifying and gaining room for maneuver.

In a world where trade, energy, and technology have become geoeconomic instruments, the payment system is another piece of the chessboard.

Money is no longer just economic.

It is strategic.

Conclusion – The Return of Structural Power

If there is one thing that connects Brussels, Havana, Ottawa, Tehran, and Davos, it is this:

Power is no longer exercised only with armies. It is exercised through markets. Through energy. Through subsidies. Through access to credit. Through supply chains.

Europe tries to use its market as a shield. China uses its industrial scale as leverage. The United States uses sanctions as structural pressure. Iran turns its isolation into a narrative of resistance. Canada walks a tightrope of interdependence.

We are entering an era of strategic interdependence, where every public contract, every fuel shipment, and every wind turbine carries geopolitical implications.

The big question is not whether there will be trade?

The question is:

Who has enough structural power to set the terms?

Once again, you have listened to Café con Leche — where geopolitics is served without sugar.

Until next time.

CAFÉ CON LECHE – POWER WORDS

FULL EPISODE (Themes 1–5 + Bonus)

THEME 1 – The EU Against China

(B2 → C1 → C2)

B2 – Upper-Intermediate

Reciprocity — Reciprocidad
EN: The EU demands reciprocity in market access.
ES: La UE exige reciprocidad en el acceso al mercado.

Market access — Acceso al mercado
EN: Access to the European market is a tool of power.
ES: El acceso al mercado europeo es una herramienta de poder.

Strategic shift — Giro estratégico
EN: Europe is undergoing a strategic shift toward China.
ES: Europa está viviendo un giro estratégico frente a China.

Retaliation — Represalias
EN: The new rules could trigger retaliation.
ES: Las nuevas reglas podrían provocar represalias.

State subsidies — Subsidios estatales
EN: Chinese firms receive state subsidies.
ES: Las empresas chinas reciben subsidios estatales.

C1 – Advanced

Systemic rival — Rival sistémico
EN: China is considered a systemic rival.
ES: China es considerado un rival sistémico.

Strategic autonomy — Autonomía estratégica
EN: Brussels promotes strategic autonomy.
ES: Bruselas promueve la autonomía estratégica.

Conditionality — Condicionalidad
EN: Conditionality regulates access to public contracts.
ES: La condicionalidad regula el acceso a contratos públicos.

Geoeconomic instrument — Instrumento geoeconómico
EN: The market becomes a geoeconomic instrument.
ES: El mercado se convierte en instrumento geoeconómico.

Industrial policy — Política industrial
EN: The EU strengthens its industrial policy.
ES: La UE refuerza su política industrial.

C2 – Proficient

Systemic recalibration — Recalibración sistémica
EN: European policy is undergoing systemic recalibration.
ES: La política europea vive una recalibración sistémica.

Strategic leverage conversion — Conversión estratégica de influencia
EN: The EU transforms its market into strategic leverage.
ES: La UE transforma su mercado en influencia estratégica.

Structural dependency — Dependencia estructural
EN: Europe seeks to avoid structural dependency.
ES: Europa busca evitar dependencia estructural.

Coercive interdependence — Interdependencia coercitiva
EN: Trade reflects coercive interdependence.
ES: El comercio refleja interdependencia coercitiva.

Economic statecraft — Diplomacia económica estratégica
EN: Brussels uses economic statecraft.
ES: Bruselas utiliza diplomacia económica estratégica.

THEME 2 – Cuba and China

B2

Fuel shortage — Escasez de combustible
EN: Cuba faces a fuel shortage.
ES: Cuba enfrenta una escasez de combustible.

Vulnerability — Vulnerabilidad
EN: The economy shows high vulnerability.
ES: La economía muestra gran vulnerabilidad.

Economic pressure — Presión económica
EN: Sanctions generate economic pressure.
ES: Las sanciones generan presión económica.

Energy dependency — Dependencia energética
EN: Cuba suffers energy dependency.
ES: Cuba sufre dependencia energética.

Diversification — Diversificación
EN: Cuba seeks diversification of partners.
ES: Cuba busca diversificación de socios.

C1

Economic coercion — Coerción económica
EN: Sanctions function as economic coercion.
ES: Las sanciones funcionan como coerción económica.

Asymmetry — Asimetría
EN: There is asymmetry between actors.
ES: Existe asimetría entre los actores.

Strategic leverage — Influencia estratégica
EN: Fuel becomes strategic leverage.
ES: El combustible se convierte en influencia estratégica.

Instrumentalization — Instrumentalización
EN: Aid may involve political instrumentalization.
ES: La ayuda puede implicar instrumentalización política.

Sovereignty — Soberanía
EN: The country tries to preserve its sovereignty.
ES: El país intenta preservar su soberanía.

C2

Structural dependency — Dependencia estructural
EN: There is risk of structural dependency.
ES: Existe riesgo de dependencia estructural.

Power asymmetry — Asimetría de poder
EN: Power asymmetry shapes decisions.
ES: La asimetría de poder condiciona decisiones.

Coercive interdependence — Interdependencia coercitiva
EN: Energy trade reflects coercive interdependence.
ES: El comercio energético refleja interdependencia coercitiva.

Sovereignty erosion — Erosión de la soberanía
EN: Sovereignty erosion may occur.
ES: Puede producirse erosión de la soberanía.

Economic statecraft — Diplomacia económica estratégica
EN: China applies economic statecraft.
ES: China aplica diplomacia económica estratégica.

THEME 3 – Canada and the Strategic Dilemma

B2

Alignment — Alineamiento
EN: Canada debates its strategic alignment.
ES: Canadá debate su alineamiento estratégico.

Dependency — Dependencia
EN: Excessive trade creates dependency.
ES: El comercio excesivo crea dependencia.

Strategic partner — Socio estratégico
EN: China is seen as a strategic partner.
ES: China es visto como socio estratégico.

Resource exports — Exportación de recursos
EN: Canada depends on resource exports.
ES: Canadá depende de exportación de recursos.

Foreign investment — Inversión extranjera
EN: Foreign investment influences economic policy.
ES: La inversión extranjera influye en la política económica.

C1

Asymmetry — Asimetría
EN: The relationship shows economic asymmetry.
ES: La relación muestra asimetría económica.

Regulatory influence — Influencia regulatoria
EN: Canada has less global regulatory influence.
ES: Canadá tiene menor influencia regulatoria global.

Strategic dependency — Dependencia estratégica
EN: There is risk of strategic dependency.
ES: Existe riesgo de dependencia estratégica.

Interdependence — Interdependencia
EN: Trade creates interdependence.
ES: El comercio genera interdependencia.

Autonomy — Autonomía
EN: Canada seeks to maintain autonomy.
ES: Canadá busca mantener autonomía.

C2

Power asymmetry — Asimetría de poder
EN: Power asymmetry may limit sovereign decisions.
ES: La asimetría de poder puede limitar decisiones soberanas.

Structural dependency — Dependencia estructural
EN: The economy could fall into structural dependency.
ES: La economía podría caer en dependencia estructural.

Coercive interdependence — Interdependencia coercitiva
EN: Trade can turn into coercive interdependence.
ES: El comercio puede transformarse en interdependencia coercitiva.

Sovereignty erosion — Erosión de la soberanía
EN: Foreign policy may suffer sovereignty erosion.
ES: La política exterior puede sufrir erosión de la soberanía.

Strategic subordination — Subordinación estratégica
EN: Some fear strategic subordination.
ES: Algunos temen una subordinación estratégica.

THEME 4 – Iran’s Nuclear Red Line

B2

Nuclear program — Programa nuclear
EN: Iran will not renounce its nuclear program.
ES: Irán no renunciará a su programa nuclear.

Sanctions — Sanciones
EN: Sanctions affect Iran’s economy.
ES: Las sanciones afectan la economía iraní.

Deterrence — Disuasión
EN: The nuclear program acts as deterrence.
ES: El programa nuclear funciona como disuasión.

Direct conflict — Conflicto directo
EN: There is risk of direct conflict.
ES: Existe riesgo de conflicto directo.

Regime survival — Supervivencia del régimen
EN: The regime prioritizes its survival.
ES: El régimen prioriza su supervivencia.

C1

Economic coercion — Coerción económica
EN: Sanctions are a form of economic coercion.
ES: Las sanciones son una forma de coerción económica.

Strategic entrenchment — Atrincheramiento estratégico
EN: Sanctions create strategic entrenchment.
ES: Las sanciones generan atrincheramiento estratégico.

Resistance economy — Economía de resistencia
EN: Iran develops a resistance economy.
ES: Irán desarrolla una economía de resistencia.

Sovereignty — Soberanía
EN: The program is framed as defense of sovereignty.
ES: El programa se presenta como defensa de la soberanía.

Defense doctrine — Doctrina de defensa
EN: The program is part of defense doctrine.
ES: El programa forma parte de la doctrina de defensa.

C2

Embedded deterrence logic — Lógica disuasiva incrustada
EN: There is an embedded deterrence logic in its strategy.
ES: Existe una lógica disuasiva incrustada en su estrategia.

Coercive interdependence — Interdependencia coercitiva
EN: Sanctions generate coercive interdependence.
ES: Las sanciones generan interdependencia coercitiva.

Regional escalation — Escalada regional
EN: There is risk of regional escalation.
ES: Existe riesgo de escalada regional.

Strategic equilibrium — Equilibrio estratégico
EN: The region faces a fragile strategic equilibrium.
ES: La región vive un frágil equilibrio estratégico.

Economic statecraft — Diplomacia económica estratégica
EN: The West uses economic statecraft.
ES: Occidente utiliza diplomacia económica estratégica.

THEME 5 – The Wind Turbine War

B2

Energy transition — Transición energética
EN: The energy transition is a priority in Europe.
ES: La transición energética es prioritaria en Europa.

Energy security — Seguridad energética
EN: Energy security is a central concern.
ES: La seguridad energética es una preocupación central.

Subsidies — Subsidios
EN: China uses industrial subsidies.
ES: China utiliza subsidios industriales.

Industrial competition — Competencia industrial
EN: There is intense industrial competition.
ES: Existe fuerte competencia industrial.

Critical infrastructure — Infraestructura crítica
EN: The power grid is critical infrastructure.
ES: La red eléctrica es infraestructura crítica.

C1

Industrial policy — Política industrial
EN: European industrial policy is intensifying.
ES: La política industrial europea se intensifica.

Strategic vulnerability — Vulnerabilidad estratégica
EN: There is technological strategic vulnerability.
ES: Existe vulnerabilidad estratégica tecnológica.

Geoeconomic instrument — Instrumento geoeconómico
EN: Regulation is a geoeconomic instrument.
ES: La regulación es instrumento geoeconómico.

Strategic autonomy — Autonomía estratégica
EN: Europe seeks energy strategic autonomy.
ES: Europa busca autonomía estratégica energética.

Systemic competition — Competencia sistémica
EN: We face systemic competition.
ES: Estamos ante competencia sistémica.

C2

Structural power — Poder estructural
EN: Technological control grants structural power.
ES: El control tecnológico otorga poder estructural.

Structural dependency — Dependencia estructural
EN: Europe fears technological structural dependency.
ES: Europa teme dependencia estructural tecnológica.

Coercive interdependence — Interdependencia coercitiva
EN: Energy can generate coercive interdependence.
ES: La energía puede generar interdependencia coercitiva.

Sovereignty erosion — Erosión de la soberanía
EN: There is risk of energy sovereignty erosion.
ES: Existe riesgo de erosión de la soberanía energética.

Global industrial architecture — Arquitectura industrial global
EN: The battle reshapes the global industrial architecture.
ES: La batalla redefine la arquitectura industrial global.

BONUS – European Payment System: Power Words

B2

Payment system — Sistema de pagos
EN: The European payment system largely depends on foreign networks.
ES: El sistema de pagos europeo depende en gran medida de redes extranjeras.

Credit cards — Tarjetas de crédito
EN: Most credit cards in Europe use American networks.
ES: La mayoría de las tarjetas de crédito en Europa usan redes estadounidenses.

Financial dependency — Dependencia financiera
EN: Europe wants to reduce its external financial dependency.
ES: Europa quiere reducir su dependencia financiera externa.

Critical infrastructure — Infraestructura crítica
EN: The payment system is critical infrastructure for the economy.
ES: El sistema de pagos es infraestructura crítica para la economía.

Sanctions — Sanciones
EN: Sanctions can block international transactions.
ES: Las sanciones pueden bloquear transacciones internacionales.

C1

Strategic autonomy — Autonomía estratégica
EN: The EU seeks strategic autonomy in the financial sector.
ES: La UE busca autonomía estratégica en el sector financiero.

Jurisdiction — Jurisdicción
EN: Current networks operate under U.S. jurisdiction.
ES: Las redes actuales operan bajo jurisdicción estadounidense.

Economic coercion — Coerción económica
EN: Financial systems can be used as economic coercion.
ES: Los sistemas financieros pueden utilizarse como coerción económica.

Strategic vulnerability — Vulnerabilidad estratégica
EN: Dependency creates strategic vulnerability in times of crisis.
ES: La dependencia crea vulnerabilidad estratégica en tiempos de crisis.

Financial network — Red financiera
EN: Europe wants to develop its own independent financial network.
ES: Europa quiere desarrollar su propia red financiera independiente.

C2

Structural power — Poder estructural
EN: Control of payment systems grants structural power in the global economy.
ES: El control del sistema de pagos otorga poder estructural en la economía global.

Structural dependency — Dependencia estructural
EN: The EU seeks to avoid structural dependency on the U.S. financial system.
ES: La UE intenta evitar una dependencia estructural del sistema financiero estadounidense.

Coercive interdependence — Interdependencia coercitiva
EN: The current architecture reflects financial coercive interdependence.
ES: La arquitectura actual refleja interdependencia coercitiva financiera.

Economic statecraft — Diplomacia económica estratégica
EN: Sanctions are part of modern economic statecraft.
ES: Las sanciones forman parte de la diplomacia económica estratégica moderna.

Global financial architecture — Arquitectura financiera global
EN: Europe wants greater influence in the global financial architecture.
ES: Europa quiere mayor influencia en la arquitectura financiera global.