(EN) Café on Leche - Episode # 9- Wednesday, December 31, 2025 -Café Con Leche - Become bilingual with global politics

Bienvenidos, welcome back to the final Cafe con Leche of 2025. I’m your host, Richard, and today we are closing the book on a year where the 'impossible' became the 'inevitable.' From the EU blinking in its showdown with the internal combustion engine to the shadow of a US-annexed Greenland looming over the Arctic. We’re going to talk about why BYD is the new Tesla, why the Red Cross is sounding the alarm in Africa, and why a YouTuber in Algeria can cause a diplomatic crisis. Sip that coffee, clear your mind—it’s time for the global wrap-up. Let's get into it.

Theme 1: The Great Automotive Pivot: EU’s Retreat and BYD’s Conquest

The automotive landscape of 2025 has reached a fever pitch, characterized by a dramatic "U-turn" in Brussels and an aggressive "fast-forward" in Shenzhen. For years, the European Union’s 2035 ban on internal combustion engines (ICE) was the North Star of global climate policy. However, as we close this year, that star has dimmed. Facing a perfect storm of stagnant EV sales, high energy costs, and the rise of right-wing populism across the continent, the EU has effectively blinked. The revised mandate now carves out a massive loophole for "carbon-neutral e-fuels." This isn't just a technicality; it’s a lifeline for the German and Italian luxury car industries. The political reality is that European voters are not ready to abandon the piston engine if it means economic suicide or dependence on Chinese supply chains. This "technological neutrality" is a strategic retreat, acknowledging that the infrastructure for a total EV transition simply isn't there yet.

While Europe hesitates, BYD (Build Your Dreams) has seized the throne. By mid-2025, BYD didn't just beat Tesla; it out-innovated and out-scaled it. The secret to BYD's "irresistible conquest" lies in its vertical integration. Unlike Tesla, which relies on a complex web of global suppliers, BYD started as a battery company. They own the mines, the chip fabrication plants, and even the literal ships—the massive "Ro-Ro" carriers—that bring their cars to foreign ports. This year, we’ve seen BYD move beyond the "budget" label. With their luxury brand Yangwang, they are proving they can compete with Mercedes-Benz on tech, featuring cars that can tank-turn and float in water.

Furthermore, BYD’s geopolitical strategy is brilliant. While the US and EU slap 100% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, BYD is bypassing these walls by building massive factories in Hungary, Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico. They are becoming "local" players in every major market. In the Global South, BYD is winning because they offer what Tesla doesn't: a $12,000 electric hatchback that actually works. As we look at the global economy, the shift is clear: the era of Western automotive hegemony is over. The "Conquest" is no longer a threat; it is the new reality of the 2025 global market.

Theme 2: Turkish Intelligence: From Libyan Skies to ISIS Sweeps

Turkey’s role as a regional "hub" has never been more apparent than in the closing weeks of 2025. The request for German assistance in investigating the crash of the Libyan military leader’s plane is a masterstroke of diplomatic maneuvering. General Mohammed al-Haddad is a central figure in the fragile peace of North Africa. When his aircraft went down shortly after departing from Turkish soil, the stakes couldn't have been higher. By inviting Germany—a nation with high technical prestige and a perceived "neutrality" in the Libyan conflict—to lead the black box analysis, Turkey is shielding itself from accusations of foul play. Ankara is heavily invested in the Libyan Government of National Unity (GNU) to secure maritime boundaries and energy deals in the Mediterranean. Any suspicion that Turkey failed to protect a high-ranking Libyan official could ignite a firestorm in Tripoli. This cooperation highlights a new "Pragmatic Axis" between Ankara and Berlin, where technical cooperation is used to defuse geopolitical time bombs.

Domestically, the Turkish security apparatus has launched one of the largest counter-terrorism operations in recent history. Operation "GURZ-25" resulted in the arrest of 357 individuals linked to the Islamic State (ISIS). This is not merely a police action; it is a statement of capability. Turkey sits at the crossroads of the world’s most volatile migration routes and conflict zones. For President Erdogan’s administration, these arrests serve two purposes. First, they provide internal security ahead of the high-risk New Year holiday season. Second, they serve as diplomatic leverage. By proving it is the ultimate "bulwark" against ISIS moving into Europe, Turkey reinforces its necessity to NATO and the EU, even as relations remain strained over other issues.

The sheer scale of the arrests suggests that ISIS cells have been attempting to reform in the vacuum left by shifting US priorities in the Middle East. Turkey is signaling to the world that while it may be a "rebel" within NATO on some policy fronts, it remains the indispensable frontline state in the global war on terror. The geopolitical economy of security is Turkey's greatest export: they offer stability in exchange for political concessions from the West.

Theme 3: The YouTuber Ordeal: Freedom of Speech vs. Sovereign Sensitivity in Algeria

In 2025, the smartphone has become as sensitive a geopolitical tool as a diplomatic cable. The recent expulsion of two French YouTubers from Algeria, after a grueling period of detention and interrogation, serves as a chilling case study in the "Securitization of Content." These creators, known for travel vlogging, found themselves caught in the gears of an Algerian state that is increasingly paranoid about its international image. To the YouTubers, they were "documenting culture"; to the Algerian intelligence services, they were conducting unauthorized "information operations." This incident highlights a growing global trend where sovereign states no longer distinguish between a journalist, a tourist, and an influencer. In the eyes of Algiers, any narrative not controlled by the state is a threat to the "New Algeria" project championed by President Tebboune.

This ordeal also reflects the toxic state of Franco-Algerian relations. Despite decades of shared history, the relationship remains trapped in a cycle of grievance and colonial trauma. The detention of French citizens, even if they are "just" YouTubers, is a calculated move to signal that French "soft power" is no longer welcome to roam freely. It also serves as a warning to the Algerian diaspora in France: the border is not just a physical line, but a digital one. If you film the "wrong" things—poverty, bread lines, or political dissent—you are treated as an agent of a foreign power.

From a geopolitical economy perspective, this affects Algeria's attempts to diversify its economy through tourism. You cannot invite the world to "Discover Algeria" while simultaneously arresting those who try to film it. It creates a "Digital Iron Curtain" that stifles the very cultural exchange needed for economic modernization. As these YouTubers recount their ordeal on French media, the reputational damage to Algeria’s tourism sector is immense. It reminds us that in 2025, the most dangerous weapon a civilian can carry into a sensitive state is an iPhone with 4K recording capabilities and a million followers.

Theme 4: The Arctic Real Estate Deal: Greenland, Trump, and Danish Defense

The "Greenland Question" has returned to the forefront of global geopolitics with a vengeance in 2025. What was once dismissed as a bizarre whim of Donald Trump’s first term has become a cornerstone of his second term’s "Arctic Doctrine." Trump’s renewed threats to "annex" or purchase the world's largest island are no longer just about real estate; they are about the massive mineral deposits—lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements—essential for the global energy transition. With the Arctic ice melting at record speeds, Greenland is no longer a frozen wasteland; it is the "Persian Gulf of Critical Minerals." Trump views this as a strategic necessity to decouple the US from Chinese supply chains. If the US controls Greenland, it controls the future of the battery industry.

Denmark’s response has been a masterclass in high-stakes survival. While Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has called the idea "absurd," Denmark is moving quickly to "buy its way" out of the predicament. The recent announcement that Denmark will purchase advanced P-8 Poseidon patrol planes and more F-35s from the United States is a clear case of transactional diplomacy. Denmark is essentially saying: "We will buy your planes, we will support your defense industry, and we will act as your eyes and ears in the North Atlantic—just stop talking about taking our territory." It is a massive transfer of wealth from Copenhagen to Washington intended to soothe the "America First" appetite for expansion.

However, the Greenlandic people themselves are caught in the middle. The autonomous government in Nuuk is using this US-Danish tension to push for their own independence. They see an opportunity: if the US wants Greenland so badly, perhaps Nuuk can negotiate its own defense deal, bypassing Copenhagen entirely. This creates a dangerous "triangle" of sovereignty. As the US military expands its presence at Thule (now Pituffik) Air Base, the line between "protection" and "occupation" begins to blur. The geopolitical economy of the Arctic is being rewritten, and the price of entry is billions of dollars in military hardware.

Theme 5: Africa’s Silent Crisis: 50 Conflicts and the Red Cross Warning

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has issued a warning that should shatter the complacency of the global community. As of late 2025, Africa is home to over 50 active armed conflicts, accounting for a staggering 40% of the world's total. This is not just a statistic; it is a systemic failure of global governance. We are witnessing a "polycrisis" where climate change, food insecurity, and the proliferation of small arms have created a cycle of violence that seems impossible to break. From the scorched earth tactics in Sudan to the insurgencies in the Sahel and the resource wars in the eastern DRC, the humanitarian landscape is one of total exhaustion.

The geopolitical tragedy here is the "funding gap." While billions of dollars flow into the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the ICRC reports that aid for African conflicts is at a ten-year low. The West is suffering from "empathy fatigue," turning inward as domestic economic pressures mount. Meanwhile, the nature of conflict in Africa has changed. We are no longer seeing just two armies fighting; we are seeing a fragmentation of hundreds of non-state actors, paramilitaries, and private military companies (like the remnants of Wagner or new Chinese security firms) vying for control of gold, coltan, and oil.

This is a crisis of the global economy as much as a crisis of humanity. Africa is the continent of the future, with the world's youngest population and the minerals required for the 21st-century tech revolution. Yet, the persistent instability ensures that this wealth never reaches the people. Instead, it fuels the displacement of 35 million souls, many of whom are forced into perilous migration routes toward a Europe that is increasingly closing its doors. The Red Cross is warning that if the world continues to treat these 50 conflicts as "isolated incidents" rather than a continental emergency, the fallout—in terms of migration, terrorism, and economic disruption—will be felt globally for decades. We are ignoring 40% of the world's fire while trying to build a house next door.

Podcast Conclusion: Final Thoughts

And that, my friends, is a wrap for 2025. What have we learned? That the green transition is more of a 'green negotiation,' that borders are becoming more fluid and more rigid at the same time, and that the global south—from BYD’s factories to the conflict zones in Sudan—is where the real history of the 21st century is being written. As we head into 2026, keep your eyes on the data but your heart on the humans behind the headlines. Thanks for listening to Cafe con Leche. ¡Hasta el año que viene! See you next year.

Theme 1: The Great Automotive Pivot & BYD’s Hegemony

Theme 2: Turkish Intelligence & The Libyan Crash

Theme 3: YouTuber Expulsions & Soft Power

Theme 4: Greenland & The Arctic Real Estate Deal

Theme 5: Africa’s Silent Crisis & The Red Cross